Brazil currently has a PCV10 pediatric NIP. However, there have been significant progressive increases in pneumococcal disease in recent years attributed to serotypes 3, 6A, and 19A covered by the PCV13. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of switching from PCV10 to PCV13 for Brazilian infants from a payer perspective. A decision-analytic model was adapted to assess the clinical and economic outcomes of continuing PCV10 or switching to PCV13. The analysis estimated future costs ($BRL), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and health outcomes for PCV10 and PCV13 over five y. Input parameters were from published sources. Future serotype dynamics were predicted using Brazilian and global historical trends. Over five y, PCV13 could prevent 12,342 bacteremia, 15,330 meningitis, 170,191 hospitalized pneumonia, and 25,872 otitis media cases, avert 13,709 pneumococcal disease deaths, gain 20,317 QALYs, and save 172 million direct costs compared with PCV10. The use of PCV13 in the Brazilian NIP could reduce pneumococcal disease, improve population health, and save substantial healthcare costs. Results are reliable even when considering uncertainty for possible serotype dynamics with different underlying assumptions.
Reference: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2020.1809266
