Little is known about the risk of progression from carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) carriage to CPE bloodstream infection (BSI) outside of high-risk settings. We aimed to determine the incidence of CPE BSI among CPE carriers and to assess whether the incidence differed by carbapenemase, species, and setting.
We conducted a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study using national databases. The cohort consisted of all patients in Israel with CPE detected by screening from 1/1/2020 to 10/10/2022. We calculated the cumulative incidence of CPE BSI within 1 year among CPE carriers. We used a competing-risks model with BSI as the outcome and death as the competing risk.
The study included 6,828 CPE carriers. The cumulative incidence of CPE BSI was 2.4% (95% CI: 2.1%-2.8%). Compared to KPC, the subhazard of BSI was lower for NDM (aSHR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.49-1.05) and OXA-48-like (aSHR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.32-1.12) but these differences did not reach statistical significance. Compared to K. pneumoniae, the subhazard of BSI was lower for carriers of carbapenemase-producing E. coli (aSHR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.20-0.47). The subhazard of BSI was higher among patients with CPE carriage first detected in intensive care units (aSHR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.50-3.92) or oncology/hematology wards (aSHR: 3.77, 95% CI: 2.40-5.93) compared to medical wards.
The risk of CPE BSI among CPE carriers is lower than previously reported in studies that focused on high-risk patients and settings. The risk of BSI differs significantly by bacterial species and setting, but not by carbapenemase.

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