Photo Credit: Firn

The Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) effectively predicted the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in the United States, making it a useful tool in diabetes care and prevention, according to new study findings. Kathy Kornas, MD, and colleagues assessed the tool’s predictive performance for discrimination and calibration plots against observed incident diabetes cases. Using data from the 2009 to 2018 National Health Interview Surveys, the researchers modeled the population benefit of diabetes prevention strategies, including a community-wide, high-risk, and combined approach. The DPoRT showed favorable predictive capabilities, with positive discrimination among men and women (C-statistic=0.778 and 0.787, respectively), and effective calibration across various risk levels. The research team projected a baseline risk of 10.2% for the development of diabetes between 2018 and 2028, anticipating approximately 21,076,000 new cases during this period. They estimated that community-wide and high-risk prevention strategies could reduce diabetes risk by 0.2% and 0.3%. However, combining strategies showed a more substantial risk reduction of 0.4%, potentially averting approximately 843,000 cases of diabetes over 10 years.