The following is a summary of “Assessing vaccine strategies for mpox outbreak in New York City using an age-structure model,” published in the September 2024 issue of Infectious Diseases by Xiong et al.
Researchers conducted a retrospective study to explore the challenges of mpox control in the context of vaccine shortages. They lessened protective efficacy, focusing on vaccine allocation decisions and the evaluation of transmission scale since May 7, 2022.
They developed an epidemiological model to describe the prevalence of the mpox virus in New York City from May 19 to November 3, 2022. The model was calibrated to match surveillance data and then adjusted to simulate and compare several non-vaccination and pre-pandemic vaccination scenarios.
The results showed that without vaccination, the number of new infections increases by approximately 385% compared to the status quo, and the transmission time extends by approximately 350%. However, if vaccinated before the epidemic, the number of new infections decreases significantly to between 94.2% and 96%.
Investigators concluded that, with current vaccine coverage, large-scale mpox outbreaks are unlikely even with future events, but in areas with limited vaccine supply, prioritizing high-risk individuals aged 34–45 is essential.
Source: bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-024-09551-2
