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The following is a summary of “European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2025 with a focus on breast cancer,” published in the March 2025 issue of Annals of Oncology by Santucci et al.

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of projected cancer mortality rates and the estimated number of cancer-related deaths in the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain), and the United Kingdom (UK) for the year 2025, with a particular emphasis on breast cancer. Population data and cancer mortality statistics from 1970 onward were obtained from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases. Using Poisson joinpoint regression, researchers identified recent mortality trends and applied linear regression to forecast cancer deaths in 2025. The impact of mortality reduction over time was assessed by calculating the number of deaths averted between 1989 and 2025, comparing projected figures with those derived from peak mortality rates observed in 1988. 

The analysis predicts approximately 1,280,000 cancer-related deaths in the EU in 2025, corresponding to age-standardized rates (ASRs) of 120.9 per 100,000 males (a 3.5% decrease from 2020) and 79.1 per 100,000 females (a 1.2% decline). In the UK, 173,000 cancer deaths are anticipated, with ASRs of 101.2 per 100,000 males (a 10.1% reduction) and 82.1 per 100,000 females (a 6.3% decline). Favorable trends in mortality are projected for most major cancers, with the notable exceptions of pancreatic cancer, which is expected to increase by 2.0% in males and 3.0% in females, and lung cancer, which is estimated to rise by 3.8% in females, along with a 1.9% increase in bladder cancer deaths among women. 

Encouragingly, breast cancer mortality is projected to decline across all analyzed countries, particularly among EU women aged 50–69 years (-9.8%) and 70–79 years (-12.4%). Over the period from 1989 to 2025, an estimated 6.8 million cancer-related deaths will have been prevented across the EU, including over 373,000 breast cancer deaths, while in the UK, 1.5 million total cancer deaths and 197,000 breast cancer deaths will have been averted. The overall 30% reduction in breast cancer mortality since 1990 is largely attributed to improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment. The opposing trends in lung cancer mortality between males and females are reflective of historical gender differences in tobacco consumption, with female lung cancer rates still rising in the EU, albeit at a slower pace than in previous decades. The continued rise in pancreatic cancer mortality is concerning and likely driven by increasing obesity prevalence and the limited progress in therapeutic options. 

These findings underscore the importance of sustained efforts in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and innovative treatment strategies to further reduce cancer mortality across Europe.

Source: annalsofoncology.org/article/S0923-7534(25)00022-5/fulltext