The following is a summary of “Assessment of COVID-19 risk factors of early and long-term mortality with prediction models of clinical and laboratory variables,” published in the July 2024 issue of Infectious Disease by Lipski et al.

Even for survivors of COVID-19, the fight isn’t over, as many face lingering complications and a higher risk of death from other causes.

Researchers conducted a retrospective study to identify which factors at the start of illness best predict how patients fare in both the short and long term after contracting COVID-19.

They involved 141 patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were gathered. The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. Baseline data correlations with these outcomes were assessed. Prediction models were developed for analysis.

The results showed an in-hospital mortality rate of 20.5% (n = 29). Non-survivors who were notably older (P=0.001) had higher rates of diabetes (0.027) and atrial fibrillation (P=0.006) than survivors. Analysis of baseline laboratory markers and early mortality time revealed negative correlations; higher IL-6 levels (P=0.032; Spearman rho − 0.398) and lower lymphocyte counts (P=0.018; Pearson r -0.438) correlated with earlier death. The one-year mortality rate stood at 35.5% (n = 50). The 1-year non-survivor subgroup, characterized by older age (P<0.001), showed higher incidences of arterial hypertension (P=0.009), diabetes (P=0.023), atrial fibrillation (P=0.046), and active malignancy (P=0.024) than survivors. The model integrating diabetes, atrial fibrillation, IL-6, and lymphocyte count accurately predicted 1-year mortality risk.

Investigators found that diabetes, atrial fibrillation (existing medical conditions), and levels of LDH, IL-6, and lymphocytes (blood tests) were the strongest predictors of who died from COVID-19.

Source: bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-024-09592-7