Despite guidelines for vaccination, the burden for disease preventive vaccines remains high in older adults in the U.S. This contributes to significant morbidity, mortality and resource utilisation of health care and costs. In order for health care resources to be properly planned and vaccine policy to be informed, a burden of disease forecasts accounting for the ageing population in the coming decades is required. In the first phase, this exploratory study is designing a population-based modelling system with separate decision trees for every vaccine-preventable disease to reduce influenza, herpes zoster and pneumococcal illness. The model uses demographic projections estimated by the United States Census Bureau to account for changes in the population of the United States over time and then measure the predicted number of cases and related costs for each disease and keep current estimates of the occurrence of age specific diseases, vaccine cover and effectiveness over time constant. This method has been employed to concentrate the analyses on the burden of disease predicted to remain constant due to population changes alone.
Reference: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2020.1780847
