Investigating the Predictive Validity of the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-2 in Children at Elevated Likelihood for Autism.

Oct 14, 2024

Experts: Sarah Schaubroeck,Ellen Demurie,Jannath Begum-Ali,Sven Bölte,Sofie Boterberg,Jan Buitelaar,Tony Charman,Terje Falck-Ytter,Sabine Hunnius,Mark Johnson,Emily Jones,Greg Pasco,Carlijn Van den Boomen,Petra Warreyn,Herbert Roeyers

This study examined the recurrence rate of autism in siblings at elevated likelihood (EL) and the predictive validity of the Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 and 24 months (m) for a clinical best estimate (CBE) autism diagnosis at 3 years. 331 EL-siblings (47.9% girls) from the prospective longitudinal EuroSibs study underwent ADOS-2 assessments and caregivers completed the Q-CHAT at 14 m and 24 m. At 3 years CBE was determined using DSM-5 criteria. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated. Autism recurrence rate was 25.7% [95% CI (21.1, 30.6)]. Q-CHAT sensitivity was 31.8% [95% CI (21.4, 43.6)] at 14 m and 30.6% [95% CI (20.7, 41.7)] at 24 m. Specificity was 81.2% [95% CI (75.4, 86.2)] at 14 m and 94.8% [95% CI (91.2, 97.2)] at 24 m. PPV was 35.6% [95% CI (24.2, 48.2)] at 14 m and 66.7% [95% CI (49.8, 81.1)] at 24 m. NPV was 78.5% [95% CI (72.6, 83.7)] and 79.9% [95% CI (74.7, 84.6)] respectively. ADOS-2 demonstrated a of 64.3% [95% CI (45.9, 80.2)] and 69.3% [95% CI (58.4, 79.0)] and a specificity of 71.1% [95% CI (60.3, 80.4)] and 68.7% [95% CI (62.5, 74.5)] at 14 m and 24 m respectively. PPV was 45% [95% CI (30.3, 60.4)] at 14 m and 41.9% [95% CI (33.5, 50.7)] at 24 m. NPV was 84.4% [95% CI (74.2, 91.8)] at 14 m and 87.3% [95% CI (81.9, 91.6)] at 24 m. Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 m and 24 m can aid in early differentiation between EL-siblings who need further assessment and those who do not, but neither has sufficient sensitivity and PPV for standalone CBE diagnosis prediction.
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

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ABOUT THE EXPERTS

Sarah Schaubroeck,Ellen Demurie,Jannath Begum-Ali,Sven Bölte,Sofie Boterberg,Jan Buitelaar,Tony Charman,Terje Falck-Ytter,Sabine Hunnius,Mark Johnson,Emily Jones,Greg Pasco,Carlijn Van den Boomen,Petra Warreyn,Herbert Roeyers

Sarah Schaubroeck

Research in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium. sarah.schaubroeck@ugent.be.

Ellen Demurie

Research in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.

Jannath Begum-Ali

Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

Sven Bölte

Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders, Karolinska Institutet (KIND), Stockholm, Sweden.

Sofie Boterberg

Research in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.

Jan Buitelaar

Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition & Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Tony Charman

Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UK.

Terje Falck-Ytter

Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders, Karolinska Institutet (KIND), Stockholm, Sweden.

Sabine Hunnius

Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition & Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Donders Centre for Cognition, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition & Behaviour, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Mark Johnson

Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

Emily Jones

Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

Greg Pasco

Centre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.

Carlijn Van den Boomen

Department of Psychiatry, Brain Centre Rudolf Magnus, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Petra Warreyn

Research in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.

Herbert Roeyers

Research in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.