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The lifetime risk for dementia in a community-based cohort is 42% after age 55, according to a study published in Nature Medicine. Michael Fang, PhD, and colleagues used data from 15,043 participants in a community-based, prospective cohort study to calculate the lifetime risk for dementia aged 55-95, with mortality treated as a competing event. To estimate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060, lifetime risk estimates were applied to US Census projections. The researchers found that the lifetime risk for dementia was 42% after age 55. Substantially higher rates were seen in women, Black adults, and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from about 45% to 60%. From 2020 to 2060, the number of US adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from approximately 514,000 to 1 million. Black adults experienced a particularly rapid increase in new dementia cases.
