Photo Credit: Nemes Laszlo

A nomogram model for predicting overt primary myelofibrosis (overt-PMF) survival among patients with prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (pre-PMF) showed good predictive ability and clinical value, according to findings published in The Lancet. Researchers enrolled 338 eligible patients with pre-PMF, randomly assigning 212 to the training cohort and 126 to the validation cohort. Analyses identified male sex, MF-1, platelet count, lactate dehydrogenase, and peripheral blood blasts as independent risk factors for progression to overt-PMF. Receiver operating characteristic analysis identified area under the curve values at 3, 5, and 10 years of 0.821, 0.854, and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.910, 0.881, and 0.825, respectively, in the validation cohort. The model had good predictive ability for early fibrotic progression and good clinical application in training and validation cohorts. The probability of overt-PMF-free survival significantly differed by risk group (low, intermediate, and high). The tool could assist clinicians “identify patients who need appropriate monitoring and counseling,” researchers wrote.