Photo Credit: Mohammed Haneefa Nizamudeen
The following is a summary of “Developing and validation a prognostic model for predicting prognosis among synchronous colorectal cancers patients using combined log odds ratio of positive lymph nodes: a SEER database study,” published in the November 2024 issue of Gastroenterology by Ma et al.
People with synchronous colorectal cancer (CRC) face complex prognostic factors affecting survival. Identifying the factors is vital to improving health outcomes.
Researchers conducted a retrospective study to identify risk factors for prognosis and survival in people with synchronous CRC and to develop predictive models.
They analyzed synchronous CRC cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, dividing them into training (n=3371) and internal validation (n=1440) groups, with 100 external validation cases. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine risk factors, and nomograms were developed to predict OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation, and external validation was done with data from a hospital.
The results showed that the nomograms for predicting OS and CSS included factors such as sex, age, marital status, tumor grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The C-index for OS prediction was 0.70 (training cohort) and 0.68 (internal validation cohort). For CSS prediction, the C-index was 0.75 (training cohort) and 0.74 (internal validation cohort). Calibration curves showed no significant deviation, indicating good calibration.
They concluded that the nomograms developed to predict prognosis in people with synchronous CRC effectively identify high-risk individuals, helping to guide more aggressive treatments and closer follow-up.
Source: bmcgastroenterol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12876-024-03393-7
