Pediatric Diabetes Incidence to Grow Substantially

The number of youth with diabetes is projected to increase substantially through 2060, according to a study published in Diabetes Care. Thaddäus Tönnies, PhD, and colleagues projected the future prevalence of types 1 and 2 diabetes among people younger than 20 while considering various scenarios of future incidence trends. The study team projects that if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017, there will be an increase in the number of youths with diabetes from 213,000 in 2017 (185,000 with T1D and 28,000 with T2D) to 239,000 in 2060 (191,000 with T1D and 48,000 with T2D). The projected corresponding relative increases are 3% and 69% for types 1 and 2 diabetes, respectively. If the increasing trends in incidence seen from 2002 to 2017 continue, there will be a projected 526,000 youths with diabetes (306,000 with T1D and 220,000 with T2D), corresponding to relative increases of 65% and 673%, respectively. Considerable widening of racial and ethnic disparities in T2D are expected in
both scenarios, with prevalence highest among non-Hispanic Black youth.